Friday, July 15, 2005

Critical Mass



"critical mass:

"An amount or level needed for a specific result or new action to occur."

In measuring market reaction to news it would help to know what the minimum impact on the market would be for it to move at all, and what would be the maximum impact a news item of any sort would make on the market.

This is true of a stock, option or futures contract and anything you could trade.


"In physics, the amount of material that must be present before a chain reaction can sustain itself."

You would want to know how much impact on the market and what type of event would create a critical mass and thus a chain reaction of buyers and sellers, some reaction which gains a wider spread attention and moves the traded security beyond its normal limits.

"The amount of matter needed to generate sufficient gravitational force to halt the current expansion of the universe."

You would also have some interest in what kind of drag on this market exists and which may counteract the critical mass of news that existed prior to the expansion of price, thus ending the expansion and triggering it to return to previous levels.

A calculation could be made based on probabilities and a bell curve - what kind of event and how much impact and weight must a news or fundamental item have in order to escape contraction of price. You could do a study of such fundamental items as routinely are released or cause the expansion or contraction of the security.

It is my belief this could be quantified and made into a strong predictor of price action.