Tuesday, August 30, 2005

Hurricane Relief




I am asking that you donate to a reputable relief agency and am making the suggestion of the Red Cross, despite some reservations about their general policies, because they are possibly the best chance to help in the immediate needs in New Orleans.

http://www.redcross.org/article/0,1072,0_312_3132,00.html

For God sakes, donate or help. Other charities:


Most charities are requesting financial donations rather than goods or clothing. This enables them to use the funds within the communities that are most affected.

American Red Cross: (http://www.redcross.org/) 1-800-435-7669 or 1-800-HELP-NOW.
America's Second Harvest: (http://www.secondharvest.org/) for hunger relief. 1-800-344-8070.
Catholic Charities: (http://www.catholiccharitiesusa.org/) (800) 919-9338.
Church World Services: (http://www.churchworldservice.org/ 1-800-297-1516.
Network for Good: (http://www.networkforgood.org/) provides easy access for donations to a number of charities including the Humane Society of America (for pets,) and various chapters of the United Way in Florida and Louisiana.
Salvation Army: (http://www.salvationarmyusa.org/)
Feed the Children: (http://www.feedthechildren.org/) 800-525-7575.
Operation Blessing: (http://www.operationblessing.org/) for hunger relief. 800-730-2537.
United Methodist Committee on Relief: (http://www.umcor.org/) 800-554-8583.
Noah's Wish: (http://www.noahswish.org/) Rescue and shelter for animals during disasters. Send checks to Noah's Wish, P.O. Box 997, Placerville, Calif. 95667, 530-622-9313.
Convoy of Hope: (http://www.convoyofhope.org/) General disaster relief. 417-823-8998.
Samaritan's Purse: (http://www.samaritanspurse.org/) General disaster relief. 800-567-8183.

YM Dotplot of Daily Closing prices 2005

Saturday, August 27, 2005

Hurricane storm track Katrina



I have been without power since hurricane Katrina blew through Miami. If it is coming your way, please don't underestimate it, it was a very nasty Cat 1 in Miami, and it's much more than that now.

I'm fine and no real damage personally, and happy to have my power back.

Wednesday, August 24, 2005

24 Aug YM 1 minute closings (4 days total) Distribution


(IN LIVING COLOR)

This Distribution of prices would seem to indicate some bounce and back fill is in store tommorrow.

Tuesday, August 23, 2005

Dotplot of YM closing 1 minute prices RTH today only

Today's $TICK/Price close Marginal Plot and the Traditional candlestick chart


YM 1 minute close Distribution of Price Today only

60 Minute ES Distribution 2 months plus

ES Distribution 30 minute bar back to 19 July

YM 30 minute bar, MP extension, Distribution graphic

What it Takes









I hear it alot.

It takes determination.

It takes Keeping It Simple Stupid. It takes a thorough study of the subject. It takes discipline. It takes an edge. On and on.

Someone who has an approach that lasts awhile says it takes being skeptical or it takes shorting the heck out of every rally. Someone else has a mathematically based system which was only worked out over years and benefiting from the oft cited Trading floor experience.

A study of one case for a small period of time such as a couple of months or years may be a nice fad but is it what it takes?

A somewhat famous book titled "Popular Delusions and the madness of Crowds" is certainly an interesting read.

A cursory look into what studies exist of the success of traders themselves and what successful ones do almost inevitably leads down a path of a story and not any kind of broad view.

It certainly would be interesting to find a study of exacting method which isolated the successful approaches and characteristics of the long term winners in this game of trading. Are they smart or is it just a jealous myth of the usually cited fund manager that intelligence is no factor in success? Are they single, blind deaf or dumb? Do they wake up early or as often afflicts many -stay up late? Do they drink and run around and socialize till 4 am or are they consumed by a fire of interest in the market?

Are there one or two or several characteristics that could be isolated which would rule out success or make failure less likely? Could you ask 10 questions or take a look at the new trader and quickly tell him or her to be on their way?

Do 5% succeed or .5%? Do those that get rich lead happier lives? Is it better to go to Vegas where at least the food is good?

The comment line is open. I will be doing some more investigation in this area and will let you know if I find anything.

In the meantime, Keep it Simple Stupid.... (winks)

Sunday, August 21, 2005

Marginal plot Close vs Volume, 1 minute, recent



Notice the outliers at the extreme ends of the price range - the highest volume at the high and lows of the range in price. 2000 contracts plus in each case.

Summary of posts - Road Map


In order to make the blog easier to use, while maintaining all new posts in one place I am summarizing in categories here the links to each of the posts:











Risk Management:

http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/risk-management-using-support-and.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/risk-management-strategy-no-chasing.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/risk-aversion.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/risk-control-after-fact.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/risk-management-position-sizing-and.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/risk-management-patience-and-success.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/risk-reward-and-convergences.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/07/unusual-events.html


Mental Balance and Trading:

http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/mumbo-jumbo.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/mental-balance-or-how-to-live-with.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/mental-impulse-trading.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/fear-and-buying.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/introverted.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/07/destiny-of-souls.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/09/magic-8-ball-and-its-prediction-for.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/your-spirits.html

Statistical/Technical Analysis and Charts:

http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/09/all-difference-in-world.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/09/statistics-and-sex.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/marginal-plot-close-vs-volume-1-minute.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/three-aspects-of-trading-stocks.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/07/unusual-events.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/07/moving-averages-and-moving-average.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/bollinger-bands-144-period-27.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/strong-tick-example.html
http://t1indicators.blogspot.com/2005/08/tick-example-of-weak-tick.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/strong-tick-example-and-lower-bb.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/sentiment-and-price-action-technical.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/looks-can-kill.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/4-day-statistics-ym-closing-price-1.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/t1-distribution-summary-graphically.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/144-simple-moving-average-ym.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/tick-nyse-distribution-summary-graphic.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/ym-1-days-data-1-minute-close.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/tick-nyse-today-distribution-curve-1.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/3-weeks-of-ym-1-minute-close.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/4000-minutes-of-ym-about-10-days-830-5.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/tick-17-aug-distribution-of-closing.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/volume-weighted-distribution-graphic.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/how-to-determine-trend-day.html
http://t1indicators.blogspot.com/
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2006/05/orders-of-magnitude-time-distributions.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/09/moving-average-fan.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2006/04/using-144sma-and-bb-on-retrace.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/09/magic-8-ball-and-its-prediction-for.html




Fundamental Analysis and News - CMI indicator notes


http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/07/story.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/07/turbulence.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/07/critical-mass.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/07/fundamentals-quantified.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/07/news-and-trend-reversals-and-price.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/07/organization-of-material-over-several.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/news-and-market-sentiment.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/three-aspects-of-trading-stocks.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/singular-events-and-market-velocity.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/singularities-how-it-is-and-isnt.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2006/05/first-attempt-at-fundamental-profile.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2006/05/continuing-theory-on-dynamic-pricing.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2006/04/interactive-dynamic-probability-table.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/09/all-difference-in-world.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2006/03/our-current-market-and-options-expiry.html


Discipline and Trading Plan development and Practice:

http://trend1.blogspot.com/2006/01/waiting-for-love-of-god.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/09/first-thing.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/09/what-is-simple-about-these.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/09/manipulation.html

http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/09/propaganda.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2006/02/lipstick.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/12/distractions.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/09/daily-trading-review.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/09/being-right-about-everything-exercise.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/09/all-difference-in-world.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/strategy-development-basics.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/developing-edge-and-group-decisions.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/ubiquitous-and-obligatory-10-rules.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/mental-impulse-trading.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/instant-gratification.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/trading-is-activity-of-buying-and.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/anticipation.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/zero-sum.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/breaking-it-down-into-smaller-parts.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/vital-role-of-repetition-in.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/looks-can-kill.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/steps.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/how-to-determine-trend-day.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/history-is-strewn-with-oddball.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/07/destiny-of-souls.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/style.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/signals-time-intervals.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/mumbo-jumbo.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/09/magic-8-ball-and-its-prediction-for.html
http://trend1.blogspot.com/2005/08/what-it-takes.html

(A couple may have been left out, and some appear more than once in appropriate categories where the subject is applicable to more than one category)

Mumbo-Jumbo!


There are several usual pieces of mumbo jumbo that come up when looking for anything sensible in the field of emotions and psychology regarding trading.

Of course this is nothing surprising because the entire field of psychology took a left turn about the time of its modern inception. It like the river that had made a wrong turn just kept going.
It became about behaviorism and how to limit the emotional lives of rats with drugs and labotomies. Oh, and possibly stick em with a little electrical trap door for conditioning.

Unless you wish to study the thoughts of rat masters who consider themselves morally superior to any mere human, you may want to skip the subject altogether. It would certainly save alot of effort in getting your wits around the conditioning process they would impose.

When I run up against a difficulty in trading or life it is helpful to me to break it down into smaller parts and work through each one till it resolves. This rarely has anything to do with someone's idea he got from a maze.

True emotions contrary to all the mumbo jumbo are a part of living and a part of trading. It is really not a needed step to turn yourself into a slavering dog to trade successfully and someone sitting around trying to not react has their attention on NOT reacting, not on trading.

For most emotional problems traders encounter a simple walk or bit of other work would solve the majority of any ill effects of such a lightly traumatic thing as trading.



Almost all actual problems now attributed to "emotional" trading are actually a lack of full preparation by the trader in his trading plan or having a defective trading plan. It can also be a woeful amount of training and background information or tools that the trader is capable of using.

If you like the mumbo jumbo, take a pill, if not get busy learning your craft and trading plan.

A history of mumbo jumbo (psychiatry): http://www.uni-leipzig.de/~psy/eng/geschi-e.htm

A place for you to practice psychiatry : http://nobelprize.org/medicine/educational/pavlov/

An alternative view : http://www.sntp.net/main.htm

An Early Holloween




What’s that I hear
In the quiet outside my window
Is it a spirit of the night?
A thing without a light

Rustling in the tree
What does it have to do with me?
Is it a spirit of the night?
Moving just beyond my sight

The night so still
It belies the chill
Of a tingle running
Up and down my spine.

What difference would it be
If there is something in the tree
A thing that’s nothing,
A spirit in the night

Who is out on the branch
And taking a chance
What's in that shade
That's the color of a shadow!

Is it alone
Am I?
What could I ask it
That it could say?
No sound I hear
In my ear
It has no voice
For now.

Turn out the light,
Turn off my stare,
Stop listening
For that which
Is and isn’t there.

What’s that I hear
In the quiet outside my window?
Is it a spirit of the night?
A thing without a light.

Saturday, August 20, 2005

Mental Balance or How to live with what you know already



Every trader can have a certain routine he establishes to get himself ready to trade. Many involve waking up with coffee or breakfast and looking over current market conditions.

Every trade is more or less prepared for in one way or another even if it is just clicking the mouse he just put his hand on.

There is a mental balance he establishes to convince himself to enter and also exit a trade. Every trade has two sides so every trade must have some decision seemingly beneficial to both sides of the trade. If you look at this exact point you will see two opposing views of *every* trade. So it stands to reason that if you listen to other traders long enough you will get conflicting points of view on everything.

If you study everything with equal weight you will eventually be exposed to a complete conflict of views on any trade you could possibly make. Such a state of mind is described by some as "paralysis by analysis". It could simply be called mental confusion, or indecision.

If you were to assume that this is an undesirable state for a trader, what that trader would need to do would be to select his own method of approach to a trade and test them for his own satisfaction that they will be workable, if not perfect and use these methods exclusive of everyone else's viewpoint.

A trader without a viewpoint will end up without his own mental balance.

Daily tinkering with a working system due to someone's bright ideas is likely to lead a trader down a road to paralysis.

Don't tinker with a working system.

Risk Management using Support and Resistance

Markets don't go straight up or down and thus tend to establish patterns which create visual levels of support and resistance.

If a bullish indicator exists while a price is at resistance levels it has a greater chance of creating a loss for a trader than one which is generated at a support level. In managing risk therefore it would allow a trader to tighten up his stop loss buying the support rather than buying a tick above resistance or at resistance.

A chart of a sideways market is shown to help illustrate this.

In a trending market very often the trend temporarily ceases to go straight up, this is a flag and very often the price action retraces to a level of previous resistance or support, which is now reversed in function.

Buying or selling such a flag increases profit potential and allows for smaller losses if the entry signal or trade loses.

This is a part of managing risk.

In the course of a bull trend developing it may have several flags which create a trend line support and several pushes which create resistance.

Buying the support on such increases the potential for gains and allows a tighter stop loss to be established.

RISK Management Strategy: No Chasing



Chasing the wrong animal could result in an unpleasant experience.

Risk Aversion








Insurance is the certain loss of a small sum in exchange for the compensation of a potential much greater loss.

Insurance companies often use statistical analysis to determine risk and overall potential exposure. They spread the risk amongst many individuals through selling them policies of a similar nature and add to their statistical estimates of such losses occurring - a premium - which results in profit for them and reserves from which to pay the claims that do arise.

Many risks in life cannot be insured against as they are too rare and/or too dangerous. For a trade often such is protected against by use of stop losses.

Someone who is trading futures needs to make a full statistical study of the risks involved in the type of trading being done or the specific trading strategy or style.

When someone does not know how to competently do something he is likely to become afraid of it or risk averse.

When a trader doesn't have adequate experience or statistical evidence as to probable risk, he is taking quite a chance. Someone who has this information however may be able to execute trades which otherwise look quite risky to someone not so educated.

Risk control, after the fact




If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging!

Oil and it's impact on people's ability to get around!

Random Trading, Random Exits



In looking at a common trait amongst developing traders a fault came to light.Beyond simple random impulse trading is trading where some of the variables controlled by the trader have been left unconsidered and to emotional or arbitrary factors.

Example: A trader enters a position and not only takes a quick profit on a partial position but then exits the entire position far short of his initial target. He essentially could no longer stand the idea of staying in the position and wanted to relieve himself of the potential stress that he would feel if the market moved against him. Then he watches the market run further in his former position's favor to where his original target had been or further.

Example: A stop loss is placed at an arbitrary loss, not based on support resistance, trade failure, his pre determined loss tolerance but rather only on comfort. These stops are routinely hit and the market reverses immediately. Example: A correct position was anticipated and the position was exited as soon as any real gain was made regardless of further profit potential. Example: A set stop loss exists for a trader in spite of any market variables such as volatility and the type of day or trading activity that exists in the current time period. Having a tight stop loss after entry on a sideways market could illustrate the gambling aspect of this.

When facing this sort of random exiting of positions a trader should determine his exits prior to the trade in the same manner he has developed entries so as to maximize his profits. He should determine what he should do to allow his winners to run as far as possible.

He should work out stops based on his risk tolerance but also on factors in the market which provide signals separate from his entry. (which the market itself is almost completely oblivious to)

He should even work to optimize any partial profit he takes and determine if there are circumstances which he would not take such and start basing his exits as well as his entries on a well considered reason.

After all, unlike nature he doesn't have an almost limitless amount of time to evolve. So without attempting to make trades something they aren't he needs to strive to make them all they can be to grow his account and profits.

Risk Management: Position sizing and concentration of trading activity

Simply a trading plan should concentrate the total number of positions held or contracts traded on the most reliable and profitable trade set ups that that trader has used. Considering a much improved set of circumstances such as numerous convergences involved in a single trade, that trade should have a higher number of contracts involved in it than one which shows divergence but is still somewhat likely to produce a profit. The number of contracts traded can be pyramid or dynamic to the opportunity perceived instead of linear.

A Highly profitable reliable trade set up may get 3 or 4 times the number of contracts traded than others not so proven. In this way less is risked on riskier trades, and fewer of those trades should be attempted than the more reliable set ups. Pyramid Volume on a trade and frequency of your most reliable trades whenever possible. This does not mean to add to existing positions, that is a different subject :)

Risk Management: Patience and success in trading

"In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is King" - Erasmus

In entering trades consider beforehand what vision and edge you truely have. Getting caught up in a buy of a mature trend hoping that others will be greater fools than you takes no patience.

Sometimes a trade will present itself which you could not have waited for or expected and the thing not to do would be to pass on it, waiting for it to become perfect. Perfect opportunities rarely exist. Waiting for perfection on earth or in the markets might exceed anyone's patience. It would be prudent in your trading approaches to find situations where you are the one eyed man in the land of the blind. Don't trade where you need the vision of an eagle on a crisp autumn day, you seldom will have the reflexes to match your vision anyway. Look for opportunities where you can profit from the exhausted sight of others.Another analogy might badly mix with this one: don't attempt to pick up nickles in front of Bulldozers with a blindfold on.

If you can't see and understand an opportunity, wait for the next one.

Conviction and the scales of trading





In developing Strategies it may be preferable to have an open mind to the evidence that is presented against the standards to which the individual trader finds important in the market he is in.

The idea of a conviction is having a well founded belief in the truth of a viewpoint. Suppose we were looking for evidence of whether a market will go up or down next. We may have a rudimentary signal such as a moving average crossover. Now lets try to make a case for this. In addition to this moving average crossover which indicates (let's say) more demand than supply on an immediate basis there is another bullish piece of evidence - the trend being an uptrend on the time frame we are trading within.Add to that a bullish divergence of the price and macd or stochastics.The chances that this is a correct conviction are then further enhanced by an observation of time and sales that indicate large blocks being sold at the ask. Volume picking up indicates stronger buying interest than had previously existed. A longer term chart also shows a bullish trend.The news and fundamental information on the market has been favorable.

The risk reward of the trade in this market environment is essentially very positive.

Finally true conviction occurs when this trade produces a profit and similar ones prove to be profitable for you in your trading. Much like justice in the court room a conviction of a different variety is determined by a scale of probabilities. Don't ignore evidence that is either for or against your initial signal in determining your conviction of having a correct trade. It could cost you.

Risk Reward and Convergences





When a trade is entered that mirrors market activity and indicators the risk/reward of that trade is greatly enhanced.

Be sure not to be staring at yourself in the mirror, hold the market up to it.

Developing an Edge and Group decisions, Trading as an art form


There are a few famous examples of crowd and mob mentality.

A panic:



A buying panic:


An edge requires keen unfettered insight into some advantage the markets participants might collectively yield. The fact that these edges are surrendered is due to its collective nature. Any "edge" you might obtain in trading a system comes from the totality of weaknesses exposed by such collective disorder. It is therefore less and less likely that a strategy developed with the agreement of more than a single mind will result in any edge, as it simply falls into the same trap it hopes to exploit.

An individual can USE others' experience, assistance and information about the market, but is not likely to benefit much from their cautions, fears or plots. The more cooks in the kitchen the blander the food inevitably becomes.

Additionally nothing works as if the market were subject to the laws of physics, no engineering-like principles that uniformly render inevitable results, as such laws would render themselves obsolete once anticipated by the mass of market participants. Everyone can't use the same entrance and exit in a mad dash without someone getting trampled.

Trading is thus rendered an art form and practice. Close study by an individual of potential market advantage without need for approval from the worst fears of others is required to truly obtain an edge. Absolute dedication to the application of such (at the level of individual trader) is required to MAINTAIN this exploited group weakness.

Ignoring others' disadvantages is a social, not a trading grace.


Don't confuse social interaction with strategy development and trading.

The Three Aspects of Trading Stocks



From the first moment a person ever considers investing or trading stocks he is confronted by three different aspects to what he is attempting:

1) Fundamental Information about the Company and the Technical Interpretation of Price Information and the how they relate to stock price movements,
2) Money Management, and
3) The Mental Aspect.

It is important to know something about each and what effect each has on your ability to be successful.

Fundamental Analysis: I am starting with this one, as it is usually the first and seemingly most logical one a new trader hears about and pays most attention to. In reality it is full of subjective views and complex almost incomprehensible economics formulas and influences. It is subject to constant manipulation and false information of all sorts none the least of which are self serving brokerage recommendations.

PE ratios are sometimes the rage, also analysts who supposedly have the researched information on companies, an avalanche of advisors on web sites, company statements, news releases and earnings. Information on insider selling, ratings as to earnings grouped with industry leaders or based on their standing in their industry all are bits of information often looked at by those starting to invest.

Market capitalization, stock share floats, insider trading and news of all sorts also figure in routinely to the new traders research regimen.

An example of the evaluation of Fundamental information:A favorite commercial of mine is a new investor studious at his computer, believing in these new ways of evaluating his investments and his son comes in and interrupts him and Dad says he’s researching to better invest money for the child’s college fund. He says this one has a P/E of 23. The kid then asks him - Is that good? And gets a blank stare from his father.The question has to be asked.

What does this type of information all really mean for the stock trader? There is no pat easy answer though. Many investors and traders who are a little more experienced would have their answer in place and say yes or no. However many stocks with a high P/E ratio or no earnings at all have been known to show incredible gains on speculation. Then for seemingly no reason the same stock sometimes loses all its price gains despite an upturn in earnings or a lower PE.

There are formulas that isolate stocks that are likely to have price gains. There are systems worked out on the basis of fundamentals whether a company is more or less likely to gain or lose value sometime in the future. These are widely available on the internet and in numerous books on investing. Investors Business Daily for instance has a rather well respected system for doing so. I am not going to compare the merits of each factor or system now, but fundamentals routinely affect stock prices, and knowing about earnings dates and which stocks are in which sectors etc. is useful even to the trader who works almost exclusively with charts.

Technical Analysis:There are literally hundreds of technical indicators that investors and traders use. There are thousands of ways to combine these indicators into a system that gives the stock chartist or technical trader buy and sell signals. The Million dollar question seems to be - which to use and how? An abundance of information exists on the smallest detail of technical analysis of stocks. It is not necessary to involve yourself in overly complex issues when deciding which of these will work for you.

Learn the basics of Technical Analysis. Test these in real time situations to ensure they are an aid to you in profiting from trades. Gain confidence in indicators you consistently see improved results from and don’t change how you trade so frequently that you do not know what works well in different market environments. You don’t have to come up with a new and unique approach, one that even you don’t understand. Ensure however that the indicators you are using are working well for your style in the current market you are trading in.

(#2 and #3 above will be covered in a series of articles and are as important or more so that #1)

Friday, August 19, 2005

Thursday, August 18, 2005

Mental Impulse Trading


What is commonly described as emotional trading could be described as mental impulse trading.

Inside a traders mind he keeps a collection of his uninspected worst fears and vague hopes. A perfect woman and a perfect trade. An overbearing parent or schoolyard bully and abuse he may have known. Failure to yet succeed at his most cherished endeavor. A friend who went bad and he could not help or save from a disaster.

Pressing needs or frivolous luxury desired alike torture his vision of what he should do next and cloud his judgments. A million more like him press their past history on a marketplace of dreams and one of glory and utter despair. Is it any wonder that there is a market din?

Does this market behave as a rational man would expect and a prudent man would act? Who is in charge of such a babble and what are "they" doing that places them in charge? The man or woman who commands his trading not by his whim or impulse sets himself apart from the crowd and commands his destiny.

The impulse trader succumbs to his worst fear or gambles his way into the frenzy.It is necessary to observe the direction this behemoth is going and what it is doing in order to travel the distance it takes to become a success.

Take a trade on an impulse and you have become someone at the mercy of the market.

Its been said : Plan your trade, trade your plan.

The alternative is failure or unending struggle. The primary mental barrier is to recognize the required discipline to do such and began the process of success in trading.

Use your mind and emerge from the swamp.

Instant Gratification

Apparently there is so much to know and do in today's world, and in the Markets, that there is no time to do or learn anything that is not instant.


A Drive through or possibly learning in your sleep approach might sell well in this environment.

One certain way to avoid getting any results is to avoid doing all the small things necessary to really have a result.


Example:
Skipping key steps in a process because you are in a hurry to "get to the good stuff". Think the result this might have on an assembly line of vital products.


You can't build something without first obtaining the parts. You can't substitute for a thorough understanding of what you are doing and why. This can't be done instantly or in your sleep.
Yet I have found it almost impossible to get some traders to put in the work needed in a systematic way to learn to trade.

Not only must something be instant, it must also be effortless.


Those who tend to "make it" and become successful either have extensive resources to overcome their failures and learn by trial and error, or dedicate themselves to really learning the subject.

Your spirits

A funhouse mirror distorts the image of whatever is in front of it.

Wall street is not designed to be transparent and true to life. It is somewhat of a funhouse mirror despite regulation which struggles to make the mirror be true.

A speculators value to the society in which he lives is distorted with no production of any real sort to show for what he does, almost none to speak of. A successful speculator provides the least effort and exchange for the most reward. If an employee of a factory his role would be just to bet on which production unit would produce the most, not to lend a hand. In such a wasteland of spirit the joy of life might dwindle. Further the gambling aspect of the scene can further drain ambition for improvement of the life of the trader, leaving him with just the fixation on the game and being a success, but with no further goal.I

t is important for a speculator or trader to keep his life goals in mind. Just as the investor has a policy statement or objective to investing, so must a trader span his attention across the landscape of his life. A fixated trader degenerates into a gambling addict. If you are struggling besides getting your indicators all lined up in a row, be sure to pay attention to the rest of your life and get it in order.

Speculating is no refuge. Stay out of that trap. Do some work on your house, talk to your wife and kids, get out and enjoy the world some. Not surprisingly successful traders will often appear to have other interests and activities, not because they were successful at trading first, but they are successful at trading as well as and somewhat because of leading interested lives.Trading is just a game. Keep it in perspective and alignment and keep your spirits high.





Trading is the activity of buying and selling.

Whether it is developing a keen eye for a bargain or after a lengthy evaluation of each of the possibilities - a certain amount of risk is involved in any trading approach.There is however a trading approach that apparently carries no risk.

Excuse trading is on the surface risk free. When no trade is taken despite obvious opportunity the Opportunity cost can be reduced to zero with adequate Excuses.Instead of trading according to a developed trading system which generates buy and sell signals an Excuse Trader will find reasons why he can't. If he had bought it would have turned out differently, as it always seems to - or so the refrain goes.

A Trader - Trades! He does not always have successful trades but he will buy and sell whenever he recognizes the signals that he has devised which will generate on the average profits for him. He picks and chooses only insofar as he can quantify trades which have not stood a good chance of working out for him. He may not trade during certain time periods, he may rule trades out for technical or fundamental reasons. However if 10 trades present themselves as fitting his criteria in a single day or a single hour, as a Trader he will make those trades, not 9 or 10 excuses.This applies to signals generated by a trading system.

If a trader is only taking 1/3 of the "safest looking" trades all of which fit its criteria, he has entered a subjective quality into the system that may change it from a profitable system to a non profitable system.

Take your time to generate and test a trading plan. Really understand the plan. Then trade your plan!Be a Trader! (Or if you disagree or can't please click below for assistance)




http://pages.tca.net/pszeto/joke2.htm

Fear and Buying





Overcoming Fear : An exercise

Many times Traders become fearful to the point where they won't take an indicated trade or they won't get out of a trade and kind of go into shock and fear of the loss. A trader might also fear inability to take a loss resulting in being stuck in a trade.

Try this:

1) Simulate taking any trade at random.
2) Once in it quickly work out how it should be managed, what stop to take and what target(s) to take profits at.
3) Only exit the trade at those points. Notice what profits or losses have been made in simulator.

Then:
1) Take a 1 dollar bill and pretend to throw it away. Do the same with denominations up to $100 bills. Now retrieve them and put them back in your wallet or purse.

Then:
1) Count the money you have in your immediate possession. Then put it away.

Then:
1) Decide the next thing you want to buy. Decide to buy it. Notice how you feel after you buy it.
2) Decide to buy something and don't.
3) Decide to buy something, then decide to buy something else instead. Buy it.
4) Look around and notice something you would like to get rid of and decide to sell it or throw it out. Do so.

Then: (repeat)
1) Simulate taking any trade at random.
2) Once in it quickly work out how it should be managed, what stop to take and what target(s) to take profits at.
3) Only exit the trade at those points. Notice what profits or losses have been made in simulator.

Anticipation



If... then scenarios are useful for more than just programming. It may help to get better entries to work on anticipating entries and exits.When you are looking for an entry set up, it often seems to occur quite suddenly.

However many times this set up has been developing over several minutes or longerHaving orders ready to place is one method of cutting down the time of execution and also something which would possibly make you think of what price you would enter at and what you would do if. Several charting programs have the option of a fast playback of a period of time where a set up occurred. Using these to develop a better feel for what you would do and a pattern recognition drill is useful in gaining more confidence in getting up to speed. Often times a breakout is a very fast action and if not anticipated can be completely missed. If it does breakout with volume would you buy? Where would you no longer buy? Would you buy the first flag?

Depending on the set ups you are looking at trading, you can have time to decide these things in advance, so you are not left deciding what you should do when something does occur.

If... then! Not If... then? Look ahead, do your If-thens beforehand, not as the action is hot and heavy.

Introverted?


Part of the purpose of Trading Stocks often is to set your own schedule and be your own boss. Trading stocks does not include the inconveniences of long commutes. In many cases the commute to work is a short walk around the house. For those traders who previously owned businesses they may have viewed the idea of making a living without employees as desirable. Also a plus might be that there are no fussy clients to deal with and if previously employed, no more boss.


Think of all the freedom that trading can bring you if you are successful. You can live where you want and not have serious financial worries, you can schedule your own life around what you want to do. You will always have this seemingly ideal way of producing income. If you become proficient at it and you wish to remain active in the markets late in life there will be no need to retire or try to live off of savings alone.

Could anyone imagine a more ideal job or lifestyle? What could go wrong, assuming that one has developed a workable trading plan and can execute it and can make money trading stocks?

When a trader first attempts to make a living or trade full time he begins quite an adventure. He does this without any assistance from previous associates. If he daytrades on line he can spend a considerable amount of time learning his craft, all somewhat in relative isolation. Sometimes he is stressed unusually just as he might be in trying to learn any other profession on the job. He is often alone with his computer screen and stocks 8-12 hours a day, trading and researching the best buys and learning to apply what he has been told would work. Very few people have a good understanding of the stock market. He is likely to find some communication in stock chat rooms or bulletin boards if he uses these.

But more likely than not his wife, his girlfriend friends or family is not going to really follow the complexities of what he is doing. Distractions can occur from life events in the middle of work which if they had occurred in previous jobs may not have been critical, but might cause serious trouble to a trader.

It is not hard to spot such as distractions. Not every trader works to eliminate these and their trading suffers from that fact. It can get so noisy that the noise in the markets is nothing compared to his personal life. Such things as a trading station that is set up to invite distractions cost money. Would kids running in and out distract an advertising manager or a chess player? A running feud with a wife or husband about something completely unrelated to trading could be a burden. A heat wave without a fan or working air conditioner could distract. When a person is trading with distractions present he is more likely to violate his own trading system and to lose money. This can cause upsets, not only for the trader but sometimes for those in his life or who are around him. At times a trader is faced with someone who in one way or another does not wish him well in his family or personal life. Custody disputes, divorces, intrusive relatives and unresolved past problems can sometimes worry him. They are in fact more likely to concern him than if he were away from his house at a job or business. He is less likely to have anyone to talk with about any of these to help resolve these situations if they involve his immediate family.

One other factor is present with many traders that are serious about learning their craft. New traders often take no breaks from it, passing up any freedom that they thought they would have to learn their craft.

This can all add up to an introverted and sometimes bitter trader. After all, this was supposed to be fun and liberating, right? There are steps that need to be taken to prevent a trader from going out of communication with his family and friends. He also needs to take care of himself physically as he is not getting exercise sitting in front of a computer and may let his diet slip also.

The entire purpose of trading stocks for a living fails when a trader becomes so caught up in his trading that he lets his personal life deteriorate, or become enmeshed with his profession of trading stocks. What exactly is the point to trading for a living if you are working twice as long daily and with almost no one to talk to that understands or shares your situation? What exactly is the point if you don’t take the time off or the vacation when the market is slow or when you feel like you need a break?

An introverted trader may be stuck in life’s problems. Discussing the traders’ life and trading conditions and getting them to a point where the trader is not constantly upset by some problem is a key to his success. Getting the trader to realize and stick with the purposes he had to trade for a living allows him to accomplish them.