In the Links column to the right hand side you will see Titles to other blogs which I have organized and posted material I have written, along with other sites.
The Blogs I have written and materials I have developed have an asterisk * before their title.
I encourage you to visit all the referenced sites, at your leisure.
My study of CMI is ending its first week with 4 out of 4 days correctly predicted. An Extremely small sample, nevertheless, I will be releasing some details on this over the next couple of weeks for traders to beta test and hopefully they can share their opinions and results also.
CMI stands for Critical Mass Index and is roughly calculated by using the significant news related to a market or security from the recent past. To quantify it somewhat I have decided to give these individual news or fundamental items such as earnings or government reports etc, a weight or importance of 1-3 and a value of -3 to +3.
In this first week I have found it somewhat effective to assign a weight of 1 to any item that produces a move in the market less than 1 full standard deviation. In the case of YM this week that was any item that the YM moved less than 25 points. A weight of 2 was assigned for 25-35 and anything above 35 was weighted with a 3 or very important. Then the movement of YM was measured (discounting any knee jerk which simply retraced instantly) until the obvious momentum from that release was initially exhausted, many times occuring within the first 20 minutes.
That is a rough estimate of how I have been looking at it and I am sure it will be further refined as I get a larger sample and get feedback from others.
This index is also intended to make a trader think about and notice the effects of various items relating to what he is trading outside of pure technical analysis and to train him to better weigh and assign more correct values to these fundamental/news items and improve his trading thereby.
Good luck.
