Saturday, August 20, 2005

Developing an Edge and Group decisions, Trading as an art form


There are a few famous examples of crowd and mob mentality.

A panic:



A buying panic:


An edge requires keen unfettered insight into some advantage the markets participants might collectively yield. The fact that these edges are surrendered is due to its collective nature. Any "edge" you might obtain in trading a system comes from the totality of weaknesses exposed by such collective disorder. It is therefore less and less likely that a strategy developed with the agreement of more than a single mind will result in any edge, as it simply falls into the same trap it hopes to exploit.

An individual can USE others' experience, assistance and information about the market, but is not likely to benefit much from their cautions, fears or plots. The more cooks in the kitchen the blander the food inevitably becomes.

Additionally nothing works as if the market were subject to the laws of physics, no engineering-like principles that uniformly render inevitable results, as such laws would render themselves obsolete once anticipated by the mass of market participants. Everyone can't use the same entrance and exit in a mad dash without someone getting trampled.

Trading is thus rendered an art form and practice. Close study by an individual of potential market advantage without need for approval from the worst fears of others is required to truly obtain an edge. Absolute dedication to the application of such (at the level of individual trader) is required to MAINTAIN this exploited group weakness.

Ignoring others' disadvantages is a social, not a trading grace.


Don't confuse social interaction with strategy development and trading.