Sunday, August 14, 2005

News and market sentiment


Some days and weeks seem to bring a unified sentiment as to Market direction, related news and the major story of the day.

While most of the market attention may be riveted on surging oil prices, a sort of Hub for the day develops where bad news that may be somehow related to that news is attached and circulates in trading circles, and news outlets. Additional bad news that is released is attached to the larger story.

Such a case occured Friday where news was spun from the press in a neat little package: Oil price news was linked to most negative stories and those that were not linked were simply noted as "in additions" to the oil price news.

Hub: Oil spikes to over $66 a barrell

related "spokes": Inflation worries. Earnings worries with higher energy costs. Trade Gap widens. Consumer confidence down with consumers polled as saying 64% of them worried about gas prices affecting their well being financially and expecting hardships within the next several months. Inflation fears due to higher Gas and energy prices.

A separate story on Dell earnings which was negative was usually mentioned in the same breath as the Oil Hub Story and thus becomes a part of the "Wheel".

Of course on many occasions the opposite grouping of stories to form one theme has occurred, where most news is released connected to some positive Hub.

Where many stories get grouped this way, they in effect become part of one story and can cause greater than usual volatility and contribute to days in the market where it trends the entire day or as long as the story Hub stays in tact.